Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2D 0x2df5…51ac sports 1485 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,730 (+27%) realized +$2,813 · open −$1,083
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%688W / 734L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$140
other 29% −$894
politics 29% −$129
crypto 0% +$4
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 49% -6.5%
≤30d 576 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 49% -12.0%
≤90d 1422 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 48% -11.0%
all 1422 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 48% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 48% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 48% -19.5%
15% -28.6% 46% -27.3%
20% -35.6% 41% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized+$2,813
Unrealized−$1,083
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses688 / 734
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions77
Markets (closed)1422 / 1485
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 1422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 43¢ 10¢ $852 $187 −$666 (-78%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 54¢ 33¢ $115 $71 −$44 (-38%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $169 $57 −$112 (-66%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 41¢ 16¢ $82 $33 −$49 (-60%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 42¢ 100¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+138%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 45¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ 64¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $51 $7 −$44 (-86%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 43¢ 12¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-71%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 24¢ 15¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 66¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 47¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Las Vegas Aces 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-52%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $31 $5 −$26 (-83%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 41¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +52%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$18 +158%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 −$5 -52%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $9 −$6 -71%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $11 +$5 +42%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $8 +$4 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$19 +365%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $11 −$7 -67%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 65¢ $3 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $5 27h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $5 27h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $5 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $5 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $5 27h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $6 27h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 59¢ $5 27h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ $5 27h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 46¢ $5 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $5 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $9 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $5 27h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $5 27h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $5 27h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $5 27h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 65¢ $5 27h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $5 27h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $6 27h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 60¢ $5 27h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 69¢ $5 27h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $10 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 34¢ $2 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $1 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $688.43 · official $688.34 (match) · 3500 history records