Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2df6…646c other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$37
sports 22% −$17
economics 9% −$9
culture 7% −$6
politics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
world 5% −$22
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.4% -9.9% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage134d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $385 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $311 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $208 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $106 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $591 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $548 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $359 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $198 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $177 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $541 −$2 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $273 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $420 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $342 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $301 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $146 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $127 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 7h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 13h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 14h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 15h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 17h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 18h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 20h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 23h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 23h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 26h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 28h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 29h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 30h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 36h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 37h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 47h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1403 history records