Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2df7…5ad0 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$222 (+11%) realized +$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate84%46W / 9L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$136
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$122
sports 23% +$2
other 15% +$16
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +3.6% -6.3% 80% 66% -2.9%
≤30d 55 +4.9% -5.1% 84% 56% -2.5%
≤90d 55 +4.9% -5.1% 84% 56% -2.5%
all 55 +4.9% -5.1% 84% 56% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 56% -2.5%
10% -14.2% 15% -11.8%
15% -22.5% 13% -20.4%
20% -30.1% 7% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses46 / 9
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage10d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $38 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $38 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$8 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $48 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$8 +16%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $171 +$29 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $372 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$21 +211%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$23 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $38 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $38 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $38 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $17 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $46 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $44 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $48 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $49 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records