Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2df9…c667 world 11 markets active 4d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$200 (-3%) realized −$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day60.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$173
politics 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.9% -20.3% 20% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 11 -16.6% -24.5% 18% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 11 -16.6% -24.5% 18% 0% -12.4%
all 11 -16.6% -24.5% 18% 0% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 0% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 0% -20.8%
15% -38.4% 0% -28.4%
20% -44.4% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$22 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$522
Trades / day60.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,318 −$71 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $472 −$50 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $591 −$20 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,675 −$28 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $211 +$5 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $276 −$3 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $128 −$2 -2%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $34 −$21 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $3 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 4¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 13¢ $26 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 12¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 15¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $40 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $14 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $6 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 19¢ $0 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $0 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 19¢ $38 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 21¢ $42 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 20¢ $14 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $27 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 22¢ $44 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 25¢ $11 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 24¢ $38 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $52 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $17 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $4 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $32 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $21 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $14 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $5 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records