Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2E 0x2e00…4322 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,131 (-8%) realized −$4,514 · open −$1,617
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%39W / 44L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$869per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$9,636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$3,462
other 20% −$1,543
sports 2% +$41
tech 2% −$1,177
politics 1% −$39
economics 0% +$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 50% -44.0%
all 83 -14.0% -22.2% 47% 40% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 40% -15.9%
10% -29.7% 33% -23.9%
15% -36.5% 25% -31.3%
20% -42.7% 19% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$575) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$242 vs −$318 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$9,636
Realized−$4,514
Unrealized−$1,617
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses39 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)83 / 89
History coverage580d
Avg bet$869
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5,089 $3,815 −$1,274 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $1,436 $2,048 +$611 (+43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $2,000 $1,371 −$629 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,011 +$11 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $758 $754 −$4 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $969 $637 −$333 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? Nov 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $402 −$402 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? May 27 $602 −$602 -100%
Ripple ETF approved by July 31? May 25 $263 +$49 +19%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 25 $190 +$7 +4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? May 25 $347 +$100 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? May 07 $77 −$59 -77%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? May 06 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 02 $1,052 −$34 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? May 01 $180 −$30 -17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 01 $107 −$50 -47%
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May? Apr 28 $2,096 −$215 -10%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28? Apr 28 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 28 $173 −$160 -93%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Apr 27 $575 +$16 +3%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Apr 25 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90k in April? Apr 23 $493 −$228 -46%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21? Apr 20 $541 +$407 +75%
Elon out of Trump administration before July? Apr 20 $122 −$4 -3%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14? Apr 16 $504 −$504 -100%
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 10 $347 −$129 -37%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 09 $120 +$41 +34%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7? Apr 08 $1,099 +$1,774 +162%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30? Apr 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in April? Apr 07 $121 +$185 +152%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in April? Apr 05 $106 +$22 +21%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in April? Apr 03 $65 +$11 +17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $1,191 −$1,191 -100%
Will Kanye launch a token on Binance Smart Chain? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Mar 31 $753 +$136 +18%
Purdue vs. Houston Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Purdue win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 23 $661 +$434 +66%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 17 $617 −$152 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 14? Mar 14 $120 +$109 +91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 14 $73 +$62 +84%
Bitcoin up in Q1 2025? Mar 12 $245 +$63 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 12 $488 +$10 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800.00 by March 31? Mar 10 $75 +$42 +55%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 09 $963 +$635 +66%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Mar 09 $244 +$3 +1%
Pereira vs. Ankalaev Mar 09 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 again by March 31? Mar 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will SBF launch a coin before April? Mar 08 $60 −$49 -82%
Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 08 $45 +$15 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $778 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $783 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $482 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,097 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,053 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,053 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 16d
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 69d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 74d
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? BUY No $100 235d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $49 277d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? BUY No 63¢ $312 398d
Ripple ETF approved by July 31? SELL No 78¢ $312 398d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? BUY No 62¢ $98 398d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 71¢ $98 398d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? BUY No 62¢ $68 398d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? BUY No 68¢ $125 398d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 73¢ $100 398d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? SELL No 90¢ $225 398d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? SELL No 89¢ $222 401d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 18¢ $40 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 18¢ $4 414d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,635.67 · official $9,635.67 (match) · 1299 history records