Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e0a…24b1 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$101 (-12%) realized −$104 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$146
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$50
sports 16% −$5
crypto 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -63.6% -67.0% 33% 11% -34.7%
≤30d 13 -33.2% -39.6% 46% 31% -20.8%
≤90d 13 -33.2% -39.6% 46% 31% -20.8%
all 13 -33.2% -39.6% 46% 31% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 31% -20.8%
10% -45.3% 23% -28.3%
15% -50.6% 23% -35.3%
20% -55.5% 8% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage8d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 25¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $79 +$10 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $174 +$5 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$40 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$35 +44%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $27 +$10 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 55m
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 88¢ $79 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $174 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 23h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $51 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $36 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 7d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 8d
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 73¢ $27 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $49 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $32 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.63 · official $152.63 (match) · 28 history records