Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e0b…f166 sports 171 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$787 (+9%) realized +$219 · open +$568
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%91W / 73L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$899
7 days+$731
14 days+$731
30 days+$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$1,552
other 19% −$190
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 45% +4.4%
≤30d 40 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 45% +4.4%
≤90d 164 +5.4% -4.6% 55% 55% +0.3%
all 164 +5.4% -4.6% 55% 55% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 55% +0.3%
10% -13.7% 55% -9.3%
15% -22.1% 54% -18.1%
20% -29.7% 43% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$34 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$1,788
Realized+$219
Unrealized+$568
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses91 / 73
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions7
Markets (closed)164 / 171
History coverage73d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $400 $666 +$266 (+67%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 68¢ $300 $329 +$29 (+10%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 92¢ $200 $292 +$92 (+46%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 41¢ 56¢ $200 $276 +$76 (+38%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $50 $152 +$102 (+204%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Yes 21¢ 47¢ $20 $45 +$25 (+124%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $405 +$261 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$8 -8%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $304 +$222 +73%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 +$113 +550%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $253 +$193 +76%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $389 −$384 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $101 +$92 +90%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $202 +$138 +68%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $203 +$142 +70%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $304 +$205 +67%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 Mexico? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 +$125 +123%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$105 +52%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$74 +73%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $101 +$71 +70%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 +$84 +82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $169 −$167 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $180 −$11 -6%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $202 −$200 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $148 +$89 +60%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $95 +$76 +79%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 −$99 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $56 +$49 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$42 +83%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 $0 -1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$14 +48%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 −$50 -99%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 23 $30 +$25 +83%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $30 +$23 +76%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $51 +$26 +52%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $666 5m
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $303 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $202 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $94 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $202 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $526 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 10h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $253 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 10h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $202 10h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $405 10h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $389 10h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $202 10h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $304 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 29h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $202 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 Mexico? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 29h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $101 29h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 58¢ $203 29h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $304 29h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $227 29h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $328 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,787.85 · official $1,787.90 (match) · 282 history records