Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e0d…bc8d crypto 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,278 (-23%) realized −$1,278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%54W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$374
7 days−$374
14 days−$419
30 days−$1,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,520
other 11% +$10
weather 2% −$21
sports 1% −$8
world 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -89.6% -90.6% 0% 0% -96.9%
≤30d 117 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 39% -34.2%
≤90d 117 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 39% -34.2%
all 123 -16.9% -24.8% 44% 37% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 37% -34.4%
10% -32.0% 33% -40.7%
15% -38.6% 28% -46.4%
20% -44.6% 18% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$38 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses54 / 69
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage180d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $44 −$12 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 17 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$12 -93%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -84%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $16 −$7 -47%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $37 +$15 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $117 +$72 +62%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$14 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $59 −$9 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$31 +120%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $21 +$17 +78%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$4 +130%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $25 +$60 +236%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $17 −$11 -60%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $18 +$8 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $24 +$16 +66%
Will Sierra Leone vs. Liberia end in a draw? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $48 −$31 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $14 +$19 +129%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $42 +$12 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 06 $8 −$3 -36%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $13 +$14 +113%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $24 −$4 -15%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $26 −$22 -87%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $15 −$13 -89%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $32 +$15 +48%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $32 −$21 -67%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $34 +$16 +46%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $29 +$20 +68%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $32 +$19 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $16 +$8 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 23¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? SELL No 30¢ $27 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? BUY No 16¢ $16 7h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $13 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $49 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $88 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $181 7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 13¢ $13 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 11¢ $13 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $37 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 89¢ $189 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 62¢ $31 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 51¢ $50 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 50¢ $58 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 55¢ $58 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 56¢ $59 9d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 9d
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $16 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 321 history records