Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e0e…833d crypto 1486 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$331 (-6%) realized −$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%719W / 767L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$42
14 days−$65
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$552
sports 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -18.8% -26.5% 30% 28% -26.7%
≤30d 247 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 32% -25.1%
≤90d 1486 -6.3% -15.3% 48% 47% -18.7%
all 1486 -6.3% -15.3% 48% 47% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 47% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 45% -26.5%
15% -30.8% 42% -33.6%
20% -37.6% 33% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses719 / 767
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1486 / 1486
History coverage80d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1486 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$6 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$5 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$4 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3299 history records