Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e12…fe60 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+5%) realized +$62 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$136
14 days+$146
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$38
other 18% +$4
politics 4% −$2
world 2% +$15
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +38.0% +24.8% 58% 58% +17.3%
≤30d 26 +16.5% +5.4% 50% 50% +14.0%
≤90d 26 +16.5% +5.4% 50% 50% +14.0%
all 45 +8.5% -1.9% 47% 47% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 47% -5.1%
10% -11.3% 47% -14.2%
15% -19.8% 47% -22.5%
20% -27.7% 47% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage183d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 45¢ 44¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$46 +152%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $26 −$26 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 +$46 +262%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$46 +114%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +250%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 +$31 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +249%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $26 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$36 +140%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by January 31, 2026? Jan 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jan 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) Jan 03 $20 +$23 +113%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Jan 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Dec 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31? Dec 28 $50 −$2 -4%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) Dec 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Dec 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Dec 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 27 $20 +$29 +144%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Dec 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-24? Dec 25 $20 +$17 +85%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-23? Dec 24 $25 +$17 +69%
Fulham FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 23 $20 +$18 +92%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Dec 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $20 +$23 +117%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Dec 20 $15 +$24 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $47 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 15¢ $10 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $31 17h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $26 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 60¢ $30 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $25 31h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Tür BUY 22¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $41 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $20 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $20 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France BUY 31¢ $20 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $51 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $26 7d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.47 · official $43.44 · 73 history records