Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e18…bf31 crypto 10 markets active 11d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-27%) realized −$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$343
sports 24% +$12
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -43.9% -49.3% 20% 20% -35.0%
≤90d 10 -43.9% -49.3% 20% 20% -35.0%
all 10 -43.9% -49.3% 20% 20% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.3% 20% -35.0%
10% ← realistic here -54.1% 20% -41.2%
15% -58.6% 20% -46.9%
20% -62.6% 10% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$94 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $114 −$108 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$327 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $178 −$168 -94%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $81 −$2 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $202 +$92 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $13 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records