Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2e19…a2c3 other 3 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,516 (+253%) realized +$1,516 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +404% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +356% what you keep after slip
Net edge+356%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$981
other 17% +$524
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+356.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +404.5% +356.4% 67% 67% +218.1%
≤30d 3 +404.5% +356.4% 67% 67% +218.1%
≤90d 3 +404.5% +356.4% 67% 67% +218.1%
all 3 +404.5% +356.4% 67% 67% +218.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +356.4% 67% +218.1%
10% +312.8% 67% +187.6%
15% +272.9% 67% +159.8%
20% +236.3% 67% +134.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +252% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +404% · $-wt +252% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$777 vs −$49 · ×15.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.54 per $1 lost it wins $31.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,516
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$574 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $498 +$981 +197%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$49 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $498 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records