Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2E 0x2e1c…4db8 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,200 (+15%) realized +$1,200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,478
sports 3% +$38
other 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+56.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +73.3% +56.8% 68% 45% +2.4%
≤30d 22 +73.3% +56.8% 68% 45% +2.4%
≤90d 22 +73.3% +56.8% 68% 45% +2.4%
all 22 +73.3% +56.8% 68% 45% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +56.8% 45% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here +41.8% 32% -7.4%
15% +28.1% 18% -16.4%
20% +15.5% 14% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$605) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +157% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$160 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $402 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $605 +$77 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $513 +$288 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $1,012 +$203 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $228 −$225 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $915 +$266 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $616 +$359 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $413 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $703 +$36 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $907 +$109 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $97 −$91 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $408 +$180 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$1,046 +3918%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $111 +$27 +24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $119 +$11 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $121 +$12 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records