Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e1f…98b2 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$735 (-5%) realized +$1,262 · open −$1,997
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$167
14 days+$167
30 days+$1,680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2,070
other 35% −$796
sports 10% +$1,233
politics 7% +$716
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +26.7% +14.6% 48% 48% -7.0%
≤30d 25 +34.2% +21.5% 52% 52% +11.5%
≤90d 26 +29.1% +16.8% 50% 50% +11.2%
all 32 +10.2% -0.3% 44% 44% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 44% +0.7%
10% -9.8% 44% -8.9%
15% -18.5% 34% -17.7%
20% -26.5% 25% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$340 vs −$205 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$2,167
Realized+$1,262
Unrealized−$1,997
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage592d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 64¢ 31¢ $2,000 $974 −$1,026 (-51%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $900 $593 −$307 (-34%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $310 $302 −$8 (-2%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 44¢ 10¢ $738 $168 −$570 (-77%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $115 $118 +$3 (+2%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $100 $12 −$88 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $393 +$107 +27%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $128 −$67 -52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $324 +$106 +33%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $148 +$369 +249%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $269 −$265 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $363 +$144 +40%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,027 −$293 -28%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $87 +$413 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $393 −$390 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $358 +$149 +42%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$98 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $343 +$164 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $118 −$115 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $148 +$370 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $279 −$275 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $128 +$239 +187%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $338 −$289 -85%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $123 +$377 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $324 −$320 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $400 +$426 +106%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $800 +$1,087 +136%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Nov 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? Nov 18 $596 −$596 -100%
Another US military action against Iran before 2026? Oct 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Oct 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Jan 01 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1,001 +$716 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $118 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $314 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $393 20h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $61 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 85¢ $430 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $128 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $324 23h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 23h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $148 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $269 26h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,000 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $734 39h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $363 42h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $87 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $393 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $358 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $402 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $118 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $343 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $148 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $279 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $367 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $128 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $338 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,166.70 · official $2,166.70 (match) · 270 history records