Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e1f…8fde world 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$3,663 (-9%) realized +$89 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +240% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +162% what you keep after slip
Net edge+162%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day3500.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3,683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$39
other 10% −$30
politics 2% +$10
crypto 1% +$17
culture 0% −$5
sports 0% +$9
finance 0% −$15
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+207.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +239.9% +207.5% 56% 34% -13.6%
≤30d 32 +239.9% +207.5% 56% 34% -13.6%
≤90d 32 +239.9% +207.5% 56% 34% -13.6%
all 32 +239.9% +207.5% 56% 34% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3500.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +207.5% 34% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here +178.1% 31% -21.9%
15% +151.2% 25% -29.4%
20% +126.6% 25% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +240% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +462% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$34 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,683
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions319
Markets (closed)32 / 133
History coverage1d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day3500.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 319 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 75¢ 78¢ $292 $304 +$12 (+4%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $244 $214 −$31 (-13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 68¢ $171 $193 +$22 (+13%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 45¢ 42¢ $209 $192 −$16 (-8%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 88¢ $194 $186 −$9 (-5%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 95¢ 99¢ $168 $174 +$7 (+4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 39¢ 40¢ $151 $157 +$6 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 81¢ $134 $143 +$9 (+7%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $135 $137 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 32¢ $134 $128 −$6 (-4%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 80¢ $135 $128 −$8 (-6%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $106 $111 +$6 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 21¢ 25¢ $85 $100 +$15 (+18%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 51¢ 58¢ $66 $77 +$10 (+16%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 32¢ 38¢ $59 $70 +$11 (+19%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 49¢ 30¢ $98 $59 −$39 (-40%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? No 87¢ 78¢ $61 $55 −$6 (-10%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 90¢ 90¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 75¢ $47 $51 +$4 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 57¢ 56¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+20%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $41 $45 +$3 (+8%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? No 90¢ 89¢ $43 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will Nicolas Pépé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 62¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$413 +32714%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $0 +$6 +7799%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $0 +$14 +3725%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $0 −$51 -98940%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $103 −$105 -102%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +187%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $81 −$101 -125%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 −$140 -2225%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $6 −$10 -164%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $0 −$16 -3774%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$3 -152%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $0 +$5 +7944%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $167 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $368 +$8 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 14 $260 +$33 +13%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $103 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $283 +$17 +6%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 14 $1 $0 +57%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $258 +$5 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$4 -17%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 14 $7 +$6 +84%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 14 $22 −$3 -12%
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 14 $13 +$17 +135%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $147 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY Yes 95¢ $104 0m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 27¢ $31 0m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $134 0m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $6 1m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 98¢ $12 2m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $100 2m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $12 2m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 98¢ $20 2m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 2¢ $0 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 2m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 3m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 98¢ $38 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 98¢ $21 4m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 4m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $176 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 98¢ $1 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 98¢ $5 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 98¢ $8 4m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 28¢ $14 5m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 98¢ $6 5m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 27¢ $17 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 5m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $2 5m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 26¢ $9 5m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $38 5m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 5m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 6m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 6m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 95¢ $19 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,682.75 · official $3,593.66 · 3500 history records