Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2E 0x2e20…e4b8 politics 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%14W / 74L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,295per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$10
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$67
other 40% −$49
world 4% −$6
economics 3% −$1
sports 3% +$141
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$5
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 +2.1% -7.6% 15% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 81 +3.1% -6.7% 15% 10% -9.5%
all 88 +6.9% -3.3% 16% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 10% -9.5%
10% -12.6% 10% -18.2%
15% -21.0% 9% -26.1%
20% -28.8% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,643) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$5 · ×5.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,372
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses14 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,295
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $972 $971 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $397 $401 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1,770 −$3 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $772 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1,363 +$3 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,724 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $321 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,021 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,953 −$5 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,675 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,693 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,116 −$3 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $71 +$112 +158%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,703 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,575 −$3 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $842 +$1 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,787 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,172 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 26 $1,194 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,660 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $65 +$63 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $59 +$27 +46%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $3,310 −$5 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 09 $85 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $2,782 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,328 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $972 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $764 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $765 4d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $778 4d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $779 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $855 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $856 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $764 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $765 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $770 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $772 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $684 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $685 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $235 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $235 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $286 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $286 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $345 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $345 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $336 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $336 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $247 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $319 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $320 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $321 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $321 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $361 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $362 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $398 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,372.33 · official $1,372.33 (match) · 257 history records