Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e22…88a5 sports 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,674 (-3%) realized −$2,674 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%169W / 119L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$351
7 days+$916
14 days+$916
30 days+$1,029
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$841
crypto 29% −$749
other 20% −$500
world 1% −$350
politics 1% +$223
tech 0% −$291
economics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +36.2% +23.2% 85% 77% +19.6%
≤30d 16 +43.8% +30.1% 88% 81% +21.6%
≤90d 16 +43.8% +30.1% 88% 81% +21.6%
all 288 -8.4% -17.1% 59% 35% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 35% -12.1%
10% -25.0% 26% -20.5%
15% -32.3% 17% -28.2%
20% -38.9% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$131 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,674
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses169 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage249d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $303 +$105 +35%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $484 +$111 +23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $203 +$99 +49%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $608 +$89 +15%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$28 +28%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $378 −$32 -9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$90 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $203 +$167 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 +$103 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1 +$1 +105%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli Jun 03 $47 +$14 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $103 +$99 +97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 04 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 04 $3 +$2 +73%
Nuggets vs. Magic: O/U 234.5 Dec 28 $828 −$828 -100%
Suns vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 124.5 Dec 28 $847 −$17 -2%
Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 118.5 Dec 27 $232 −$152 -66%
Will Adelaide United FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw? Dec 27 $999 −$999 -100%
Hornets vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 113.5 Dec 21 $162 −$162 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Dec 21 $1,103 +$59 +5%
Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5 Dec 20 $78 +$25 +32%
Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline Dec 20 $200 +$79 +40%
Knicks vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 116.5 Dec 19 $799 −$799 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5 Dec 17 $1,019 +$782 +77%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 119.5 Dec 17 $999 +$20 +2%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 Dec 15 $728 −$728 -100%
Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5 Dec 15 $90 +$10 +11%
76ers vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 117.5 Dec 15 $290 +$30 +10%
76ers vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 116.5 Dec 15 $360 +$38 +10%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5 Dec 14 $604 +$42 +7%
Wizards vs. Pacers Dec 14 $465 +$143 +31%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $459 +$5 +1%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 113.5 Dec 14 $530 +$460 +87%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $623 −$623 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 Dec 14 $580 +$43 +7%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Dec 14 $540 +$40 +7%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $355 +$185 +52%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $319 +$36 +11%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $128 −$102 -80%
AC Milan vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 Dec 14 $999 +$320 +32%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $92 +$9 +10%
Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 13 $250 −$172 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 91¢ $150 27m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 91¢ $259 33m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $303 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $595 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $101 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $383 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 76¢ $115 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $186 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $0 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $203 6h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 80¢ $169 10h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 47¢ $102 10h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 63¢ $528 11h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 59¢ $506 12h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $51 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $12 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $4 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $18 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $96 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $102 25h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $277 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $5 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $23 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $7 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $0 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $30 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $3 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 65¢ $378 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $202 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1333 history records