Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2E 0x2e22…9fa5 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$603 (+22%) realized +$422 · open +$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 38L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$434
other 37% +$177
sports 12% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +45.7% +31.9% 21% 21% +12.2%
≤30d 48 +45.7% +31.9% 21% 21% +12.2%
≤90d 48 +45.7% +31.9% 21% 21% +12.2%
all 48 +45.7% +31.9% 21% 21% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.9% 21% +12.2%
10% ← realistic here +19.2% 21% +1.4%
15% +7.7% 21% -8.4%
20% -2.8% 21% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +123% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$51 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized+$422
Unrealized+$181
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 38
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage3d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals Yes 2¢ 13¢ $50 $341 +$291 (+582%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-71%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Pakistan 6¢ 0¢ $75 $1 −$74 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $106 +$602 +568%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $139 −$130 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$30 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $132 −$125 -95%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 +$448 +873%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$592 +2218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$196 +739%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$119 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $144 −$140 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $82 +$238 +291%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $57 −$55 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $61 +$120 +196%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$124 +303%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$70 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$60 +233%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $131 −$129 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $32 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $23 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $83 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $32 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $32 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $32 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $32 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $106 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $866 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 4h
Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $21 4h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 5¢ $51 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $355.71 · official $356.56 (match) · 77 history records