Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e22…e18a crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$819 (-13%) realized −$819 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day155.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -27.7% -34.6% 34% 34% -31.5%
≤30d 35 -27.7% -34.6% 34% 34% -31.5%
≤90d 35 -27.7% -34.6% 34% 34% -31.5%
all 35 -27.7% -34.6% 34% 34% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.6% 34% -31.5%
10% ← realistic here -40.8% 34% -38.1%
15% -46.5% 31% -44.0%
20% -51.8% 26% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$138 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$819
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day155.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $518 −$32 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $1,030 +$256 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $433 −$416 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $207 +$213 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $86 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$101 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$5 +484%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $1,035 +$886 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1,031 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $108 −$106 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $441 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $518 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $560 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $568 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records