Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2E 0x2e22…d50b other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$11 (-14%) realized −$32 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +275% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +239% what you keep after slip

Net edge+239%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+239.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+649.7%	+578.3%	100%	100%	+578.3%
≤30d	2	+274.8%	+239.1%	50%	50%	+226.8%
≤90d	2	+274.8%	+239.1%	50%	50%	+226.8%
all	2	+274.8%	+239.1%	50%	50%	+226.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+239.1%	50%	+226.8%
10%	+206.7%	50%	+195.6%
15%	+177.1%	50%	+167.0%
20%	+149.9%	50%	+140.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +261% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +275% · $-wt +261% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$60 vs −$10 · ×6.04 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.04 per $1 lost it wins $6.04

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$81

Realized−$32

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage8d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	59¢	100¢	$30	$51	+$21 (+69%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	63¢	64¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$9	+$60	+650%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$30	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$9	10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$10	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.06 · official $81.06 (match) · 5 history records