Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2E 0x2e25…043e sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 684d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,558 (-7%) realized −$7,553 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%72W / 61L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$788per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$440est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$750
7 days+$750
14 days−$395
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$3,420
other 10% +$1,684
politics 5% −$5,392
finance 1% −$699
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +108.3% +88.5% 100% 100% +88.5%
≤30d 10 +9.5% -1.0% 60% 50% -6.9%
≤90d 45 +4.5% -5.5% 60% 58% -9.0%
all 133 -4.7% -13.8% 54% 51% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 51% -16.4%
10% -22.1% 48% -24.4%
15% -29.6% 40% -31.7%
20% -36.5% 29% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$789) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$439 vs −$647 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

684d coverage
Net worth$2,089
Realized−$7,553
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses72 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$440
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage684d
Avg bet$788
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $2,094 $2,089 −$5 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $692 +$750 +108%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $719 +$43 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $1,407 +$300 +21%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 06 $1,431 −$1,431 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $711 −$711 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $694 +$720 +104%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $486 −$65 -13%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $730 +$603 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $590 −$590 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $716 +$616 +86%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 22 $1,925 −$877 -46%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 14 $1,416 −$1,416 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 14 $1,416 −$1,416 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Apr 07 $702 +$579 +82%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $1,378 +$468 +34%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $1,378 +$201 +15%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $689 +$651 +94%
Sydney Kings vs. Adelaide 36ers Apr 05 $70 +$39 +56%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $1,427 +$534 +37%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 04 $684 −$684 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 04 $2,643 −$557 -21%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 04 $1,380 −$1,380 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 02 $1,311 +$495 +38%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 02 $695 +$236 +34%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $1,373 +$1,016 +74%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 31 $686 −$686 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $1,375 +$811 +59%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 31 $1,373 +$529 +38%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $1,429 +$804 +56%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $2,348 +$728 +31%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $709 −$709 -100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $1,429 +$603 +42%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-5.5) Mar 29 $721 −$596 -83%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) Mar 28 $702 −$702 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $709 −$709 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 28 $702 +$345 +49%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $1,202 −$1,172 -98%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $644 +$500 +78%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 27 $688 −$688 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $675 −$675 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) Mar 27 $717 +$603 +84%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $693 +$874 +126%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Mar 25 $707 +$651 +92%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 22 $703 +$962 +137%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $706 +$677 +96%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $700 −$700 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 15 $700 +$286 +41%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 11 $710 +$834 +117%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 08 $2,545 +$654 +26%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $789 +$342 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $650 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,457 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $105 25h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $43 26h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $47 26h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $67 26h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $8 26h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $18 26h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $9 26h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $59 26h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $37 26h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $17 26h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $283 26h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 81¢ $762 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 76¢ $719 7d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 82¢ $1,407 8d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $613 9d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $81 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $711 11d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 58¢ $410 13d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 58¢ $11 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 54¢ $730 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $716 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $91 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $134 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 62¢ $7 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 62¢ $3 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 62¢ $62 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 62¢ $43 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $364 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,088.87 · official $2,088.87 (match) · 665 history records