Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e26…2e75 politics 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$19
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 85 -5.1% -14.1% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage666d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $54 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $55 $0 -1%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? Nov 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Pitts be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Farcaster airdrop in 2024? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC P Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Dec 10 $0 $0 -4%
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will Ja Morant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Sam LaPorta be the top Fantasy Tight End? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $0 $0 -2%
Will Nebraska win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $54 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 31d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 31d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 45d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 45d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $55 67d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $55 67d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 77d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 77d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $6 77d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 82d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 82d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $55 91d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $55 91d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $55 94d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $12 95d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $43 95d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $55 96d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $55 97d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $55 102d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 103d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 103d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $55 108d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $55 109d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records