Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2e27…5f40 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$163 (+1%) realized +$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate28%23W / 60L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 55% −$14
other 23% −$1
politics 12% −$7
sports 4% +$190
culture 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$6
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.7% +5.6% 17% 17% -5.2%
≤30d 19 -0.0% -9.6% 16% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 63 +6.2% -3.9% 24% 17% -9.2%
all 83 +8.7% -1.7% 28% 18% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 18% -9.0%
10% -11.1% 18% -17.7%
15% -19.7% 17% -25.6%
20% -27.6% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×5.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage594d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $152 $152 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$12 +101%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $265 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $484 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 06 $112 −$8 -7%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $240 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $254 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $249 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $247 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 25 $245 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $250 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $254 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $236 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $11 +$6 +50%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$11 +165%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $13 +$12 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $73 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $11 24h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 26h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $152 32h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 41h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 43h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $47 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $10 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 19d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 19d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.76 · official $224.76 (match) · 314 history records