Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e28…bb7d world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%31W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$1
politics 9% −$1
other 8% +$3
finance 4% −$32
sports 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 -0.4% -9.9% 31% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 30 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.9%
all 82 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage489d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $380 −$4 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $120 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $231 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $337 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $3,119 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $227 +$1 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $108 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $149 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $245 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $111 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $59 +$3 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $109 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $380 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $119 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $216 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $108 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $131 −$8 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $217 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $109 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $121 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $287 −$32 -11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $119 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $92 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $812 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $44 +$1 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,066 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jan 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $1 $0 -17%
Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $1 $0 -21%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Aug 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 13 $14 $0 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $108 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $108 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $74 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $46 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $120 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $109 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $109 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $120 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $120 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $58 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $109 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $110 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $110 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $109 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $108 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $55 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $53 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $108 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $108 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $108 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $71 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $15 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $108 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $48 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records