Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e2e…5618 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$19
other 25% −$13
politics 22% −$18
crypto 8% −$7
economics 7% −$1
world 5% −$4
finance 4% +$3
culture 3% −$12
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 66 -0.7% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 135 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 118
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage107d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 97¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $113 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $39 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $59 −$2 -3%
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 16 $65 −$4 -7%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $18 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 12 $48 +$1 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $461 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $56 $0 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $54 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $101 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $58 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $50 −$1 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $131 −$2 -1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 04 $115 −$2 -2%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $52 −$2 -5%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $229 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $173 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $314 −$2 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $67 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $67 9h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 10h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 17h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $38 17h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $29 21h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $10 21h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 22h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $49 26h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $58 27h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $59 34h
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 87¢ $60 34h
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 93¢ $65 41h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 42h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $55 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $56 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $50 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $51 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $50 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $51 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.85 · official $47.85 (match) · 531 history records