Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2e2f…6884 crypto 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$263 (-5%) realized −$440 · open +$177
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate79%135W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,651now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$191
14 days+$156
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$139
tech 28% +$185
sports 26% −$236
other 6% −$1
world 4% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +58.8% +43.6% 93% 86% +50.7%
≤30d 158 +1.7% -8.0% 82% 48% -13.0%
≤90d 171 -1.8% -11.2% 79% 47% -17.7%
all 171 -1.8% -11.2% 79% 47% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 47% -17.7%
10% -19.7% 26% -25.5%
15% -27.4% 12% -32.7%
20% -34.6% 7% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$26 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1,651
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$177
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses135 / 36
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions16
Markets (closed)171 / 189
History coverage53d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $433 $507 +$74 (+17%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $324 $392 +$68 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 97¢ $88 $113 +$25 (+28%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $112 $113 +$1 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $82 $91 +$9 (+11%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Yes 81¢ 94¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+15%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $59 $63 +$5 (+8%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 74¢ 98¢ $39 $51 +$12 (+32%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 36¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 72¢ 36¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil Jun 23 $22 +$24 +107%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 22 $22 +$40 +180%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$12 +57%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $30 +$52 +173%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- Jun 20 $22 +$21 +96%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19 Jun 20 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $18 +$6 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 +$6 +34%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 16 $49 +$9 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$48 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $36 +$7 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 11 $35 +$7 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 Jun 11 $35 +$8 +23%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $32 +$10 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 09 $49 +$13 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 09 $56 +$15 +26%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $54 +$6 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +48%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $65 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 31 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 31 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 73¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY 84¢ $25 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 28h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 24¢ $20 28h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil BUY 48¢ $22 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 35¢ $22 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- BUY 50¢ $22 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19 BUY 67¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $28 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $18 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $18 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 6d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $39 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $39 9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 9d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 77¢ $23 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,650.72 · official $1,695.72 · 506 history records