Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2E 0x2e34…9434 other 501 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$667 (+1%) realized +$221 · open +$446
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%175W / 131L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$19,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days−$776
14 days−$1,377
30 days−$1,054
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$344
sports 21% −$67
tech 13% −$195
finance 4% +$336
crypto 4% −$389
politics 3% −$44
world 3% +$296
economics 1% −$27
culture 0% +$59
weather 0% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -15.1% -23.1% 57% 26% -23.7%
≤30d 122 +0.3% -9.2% 64% 34% -14.8%
≤90d 215 -3.5% -12.7% 63% 33% -11.7%
all 306 -6.4% -15.4% 57% 34% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 34% -11.3%
10% -23.5% 24% -19.7%
15% -30.9% 18% -27.5%
20% -37.6% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$43 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$19,363
Realized+$221
Unrealized+$446
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses175 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions195
Markets (closed)306 / 501
History coverage170d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 195 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $1,078 $1,186 +$108 (+10%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 73¢ 78¢ $832 $887 +$55 (+7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 95¢ 97¢ $747 $759 +$12 (+2%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 55¢ 78¢ $444 $633 +$189 (+43%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? No 84¢ 92¢ $536 $586 +$50 (+9%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $522 $570 +$48 (+9%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? No 89¢ 92¢ $542 $564 +$21 (+4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? No 96¢ 97¢ $503 $507 +$4 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 89¢ 96¢ $445 $479 +$34 (+8%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? No 71¢ 71¢ $424 $425 +$1 (+0%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 84¢ 90¢ $392 $419 +$27 (+7%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 43¢ 55¢ $330 $414 +$84 (+25%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? No 76¢ 90¢ $325 $380 +$55 (+17%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 53¢ 49¢ $402 $374 −$28 (-7%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? No 85¢ 96¢ $317 $359 +$41 (+13%)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? No 84¢ 99¢ $261 $309 +$47 (+18%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 79¢ 94¢ $252 $301 +$48 (+19%)
Will Valve remove Nuke from the Map Pool? No 70¢ 98¢ $214 $300 +$85 (+40%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $239 $260 +$21 (+9%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 76¢ 82¢ $236 $253 +$18 (+8%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $229 $238 +$9 (+4%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 98¢ $146 $222 +$76 (+52%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $222 $222 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 88¢ $210 $215 +$5 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $204 $215 +$10 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $126 +$5 +4%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? Jun 18 $62 +$4 +6%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $66 +$5 +8%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $21 +$17 +83%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $37 +$4 +10%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $168 +$171 +102%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $95 +$55 +58%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $115 +$6 +5%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $89 +$6 +6%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 16 $118 +$30 +25%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $114 +$7 +6%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $212 +$14 +7%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $118 +$4 +3%
Will Oscar Diaz win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 16 $139 −$46 -33%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 16 $267 −$193 -72%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Hungary leading at halftime? Jun 16 $298 −$263 -88%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $115 +$8 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$71 +140%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $230 +$12 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$52 +101%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $186 −$182 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $171 +$151 +88%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $83 +$7 +9%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $186 +$29 +16%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $16 +$18 +117%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $165 +$7 +4%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $79 +$21 +26%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $224 −$19 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $376 −$101 -27%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in June? Jun 12 $69 −$5 -7%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $104 +$27 +26%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 11 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $379 −$105 -28%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $10 +$15 +145%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 09 $84 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $66 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $67 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY No 50¢ $67 9h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY No 50¢ $67 9h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $112 9h
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $3 9h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $128 10h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $94 10h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $89 10h
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 10h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? BUY No 39¢ $50 11h
MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 11h
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 13h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 76¢ $4 13h
Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 20h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 21h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $50 21h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 96¢ $126 22h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $17 26h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $27 26h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $5 26h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $14 26h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $51 26h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 45¢ $5 27h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? BUY No 78¢ $104 27h
Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 29h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $35 33h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 38h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 40h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,363.29 · official $19,362.66 (match) · 2049 history records