Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2e39…6aba crypto 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%73W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$0
14 days+$53
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$129
other 7% +$36
sports 5% +$12
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +20.0% +8.5% 61% 61% -9.5%
≤30d 141 -9.1% -17.7% 52% 50% -11.9%
≤90d 141 -9.1% -17.7% 52% 50% -11.9%
all 141 -9.1% -17.7% 52% 50% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 50% -11.9%
10% -25.6% 41% -20.3%
15% -32.8% 35% -28.0%
20% -39.4% 23% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses73 / 68
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)141 / 148
History coverage30d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$11 +134%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$18 +1116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 +$43 +84%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$15 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +165%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 2h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 49¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.07 · official $100.07 (match) · 323 history records