Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e3b…7dc8 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$6
other 35% −$4
finance 9% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 9 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 9 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -8.6%
all 22 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -9.2%
10% -19.4% 5% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 5% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage455d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $94 +$5 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $22 +$1 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $8 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $75 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 15 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $8 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $43 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $1 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $2 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $45 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $16 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $31 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $6 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $41 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $52 37h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $51 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $52 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records