Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2e3c…ca53
weather · 1041 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$6,183 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,906 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,327
Realized+$2,906
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses984 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1020 / 1041
History coverage66d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 21 History 1020 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$92
14 days+$92
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $120 $124 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 99¢ 96¢ $116 $113 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $95 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $79 $81 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 96¢ 94¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $53 $56 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? No 92¢ 100¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 96¢ 96¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 93¢ 96¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? No 92¢ 50¢ $18 $9 −$8 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? No 97¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on May 6? No 98¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 8? No 97¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $119 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $68 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $34 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $113 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $65 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $206 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $232 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $73 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $79 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $113 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 13 $72 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $205 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $86 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $63 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $51 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $165 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$2,919
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $43 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 91¢ $65 13h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $98 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 88¢ $41 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $95 15h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $232 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $113 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $116 15h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $48 15h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $13 16h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $7 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $90 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $80 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $45 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $119 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $68 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $78 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 4% -7.5%
≤30d 59 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 3% -7.5%
≤90d 1020 +2.9% -6.9% 96% 7% -7.3%
all 1020 +2.9% -6.9% 96% 7% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 7% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 3% -16.2%
15% -23.9% 2% -24.3%
20% -31.4% 1% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,327.40 · official $1,327.40 (match) · 3500 history records