Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e3d…a3b8 crypto 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+4%) realized +$94 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate72%63W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$25
sports 27% +$65
other 6% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 50% -9.0%
≤30d 88 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 50% -9.0%
≤90d 88 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 50% -9.0%
all 88 -1.2% -10.6% 72% 50% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 50% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 28% -17.7%
15% -27.0% 15% -25.7%
20% -34.1% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses63 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 +$11 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $25 +$10 +41%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 +$6 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $40 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $25 +$11 +45%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 +$11 +35%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $44 +$20 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $23 +$16 +68%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $26 +$15 +58%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $19 +$15 +80%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$6 +89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 1h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 20h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 20h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $56 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 65¢ $27 46h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 27¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 36¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 226 history records