Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2e3d…6aa1 crypto 290 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (182 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,614 (+9%) realized +$1,606 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate51%147W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day182.5pace
Fees−$432est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$21
14 days−$53
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$11
crypto 8% −$3
world 2% +$6
other 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (182 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -2.7% -11.9% 58% 14% -9.2%
≤30d 286 +0.2% -9.3% 51% 29% -9.5%
≤90d 286 +0.2% -9.3% 51% 29% -9.5%
all 286 +0.2% -9.3% 51% 29% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover182.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 29% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 21% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 17% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized+$1,606
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses147 / 139
Est. fees paid−$432
Open positions4
Markets (closed)286 / 290
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day182.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $252 $258 +$7 (+3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 46¢ 46¢ $71 $71 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 48¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $35 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $600 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $3 $0 +17%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $86 +$2 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $65 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $23 +$2 +8%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $12 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$7 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$6 -27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $231 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $85 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $284 +$2 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $44 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $63 +$4 +6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $1 10m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $1 11m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $1 12m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 16m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 20m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $1 33m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $11 39m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $61 50m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 52m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $35 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $9 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $2 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $15 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $266 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $3 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $0 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $2 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $20 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $62 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $79 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $9 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 46¢ $41 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.42 · official $415.42 (match) · 3500 history records