Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e3e…abea other 19 markets active 8h ago coverage 42d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$82,700 (+40%) realized +$116,602 · open −$33,902
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10,900per market
Trades / day79.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$131,751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$16,382
politics 31% −$19,016
sports 7% +$674
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1,507
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-69.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -87.2% -88.4% 9% 9% -98.9%
≤90d 14 -66.7% -69.9% 29% 14% -17.3%
all 14 -66.7% -69.9% 29% 14% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.9% 14% -17.3%
10% -72.8% 14% -25.3%
15% ← realistic here -75.4% 7% -32.5%
20% -77.8% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
64.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$235 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$131,751
Realized+$116,602
Unrealized−$33,902
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions38
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$10,900
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $27,600 $46,616 +$19,016 (+69%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12,937 $12,944 +$6 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 17¢ $29,402 $11,206 −$18,196 (-62%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 15¢ $25,966 $9,522 −$16,444 (-63%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $27,600 $8,584 −$19,016 (-69%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1,085 $6,987 +$5,902 (+544%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1,085 $6,857 +$5,772 (+532%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,085 $5,492 +$4,407 (+406%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,085 $4,322 +$3,237 (+298%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,085 $4,127 +$3,042 (+280%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $3,144 $3,146 +$2 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,994 $3,116 +$122 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,512 $3,001 +$488 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $890 $2,397 +$1,507 (+169%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,612 $1,369 −$243 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,085 $1,332 +$247 (+23%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,085 $227 −$858 (-79%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1,777 $97 −$1,679 (-95%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $856 $77 −$779 (-91%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ $1 $36 +$36 (+4293%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,085 $32 −$1,053 (-97%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ $1 $26 +$25 (+3014%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $18 +$2 (+17%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $442 $13 −$429 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,085 −$1,085 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Gunma Crane Thunders win Japan B League? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,085 −$1,085 -100%
Will Sendai 89ers win Japan B League? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Adelaide United win A League Soccer? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champi May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 17 $21 +$9 +41%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 16 $2,763 +$671 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain place 2nd for the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season? May 14 $223 +$2 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 12 $13,454 +$40 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 8h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $85 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $58 35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $210 42h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $3,146 44h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $210 47h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12,938 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $70 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $65 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $124 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,254 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,286 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $649 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $61 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $104 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131,750.52 · official $131,757.02 (match) · 3500 history records