Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e42…0dfe world 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$8,355 (+112%) realized +$8,723 · open −$368
Gross ROI / mkt +322% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +225% what you keep after slip
Net edge+225%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%110W / 119L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day59.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$971
politics 46% −$333
finance 2% +$52
other 2% +$37
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+281.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 +282.1% +245.7% 45% 42% +83.7%
≤30d 218 +318.4% +278.6% 48% 44% +38.5%
≤90d 229 +321.9% +281.7% 48% 45% +38.9%
all 229 +321.9% +281.7% 48% 45% +38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +281.7% 45% +38.9%
10% ← realistic here +245.2% 42% +25.6%
15% +211.9% 40% +13.5%
20% +181.3% 38% +2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +322% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +226% → late +417% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$3 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.81 per $1 lost it wins $5.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1,180
Realized+$8,723
Unrealized−$368
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses110 / 119
Open positions52
Markets (closed)229 / 112
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $500 $833 +$333 (+67%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $500 $167 −$333 (-67%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ $19 $28 +$9 (+49%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes $15 $19 +$4 (+27%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes $43 $19 −$24 (-56%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes $5 $16 +$11 (+231%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes $7 $12 +$5 (+68%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $10 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes $9 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+66%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 83¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+197%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 34¢ 40¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes $1 $4 +$3 (+243%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes $33 $3 −$30 (-90%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 60¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+345%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes $1 $3 +$2 (+250%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+192%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat? Yes 23¢ 11¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+517%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 189 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Jun 18 $0 +$66 +51520%
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Jun 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +964%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March meeti Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on March 4? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Ma Jun 18 $0 $0 -20%
Will Nils Walker be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +223%
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Jun 18 $0 +$3 +2014%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 7? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by March 31? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple dip to $220 in February? Jun 18 $0 $0 -89%
Will Meta Platforms (META) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a contestant numbered 176 - 200 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the Billboard #1 song for the week of March Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +246%
Will Iran strike UAE in March? Jun 18 $0 $0 +40%
Will Meta reach $730 in February? Jun 18 $0 $0 -40%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +375%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026? Jun 18 $13 +$24 +187%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Jun 18 $0 +$16 +65832%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 1? Jun 18 $0 $0 -33%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on March 6? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +20%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 4? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jun 18 $0 +$5 +4662%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Jun 18 $0 $0 +142%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -52%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 18 $0 $0 +11%
Will Chuck Schumer applaud during Trump's State of the Union? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 202 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Jun 18 $0 $0 -44%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Jun 18 $0 +$3 +1027%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on Spotify this we Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 5? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Jun 18 $0 $0 +12%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on March 7? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +741%
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? Jun 18 $0 +$1 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 2 Jun 18 $0 +$13 +211525%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on March 9? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 1? Jun 18 $0 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Jun 18 $0 +$6 +5085%
Will Kanye tweet again by February 28? Jun 18 $0 $0 +88%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$240 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 18 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $0 11m
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $0 12m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 20m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 22m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 22m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24m
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL Yes $4 32m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 36m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 48m
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL Yes $0 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $3 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $5 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $5 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $3 7h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,180.45 · official $1,179.66 (match) · 3500 history records