Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

2E 0x2e47…d3c7 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$423 (+24%) realized +$394 · open +$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate79%11W / 3L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$120per market

Trades / day7.4pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-2.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+8.0%	-2.3%	79%	50%	+12.7%
≤30d	14	+8.0%	-2.3%	79%	50%	+12.7%
≤90d	14	+8.0%	-2.3%	79%	50%	+12.7%
all	14	+8.0%	-2.3%	79%	50%	+12.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.3%	50%	+12.7%
10%	-11.6%	50%	+2.0%
15%	-20.2%	36%	-7.9%
20%	-28.0%	21%	-16.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +31% → late -15% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$19 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.77 per $1 lost it wins $7.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$229

Realized+$394

Unrealized+$29

Win rate (resolved)79%

Wins / losses11 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage4d

Avg bet$120

Trades / day7.4

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	87¢	100¢	$200	$229	+$29 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$51	−$22	-43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$250	+$61	+24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$50	+$36	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$176	+$65	+37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$299	+$15	+5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$200	+$124	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 24	$36	+$10	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 24	$25	$0	+1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$135	+$65	+48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$234	+$9	+4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$92	+$65	+70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$7	$0	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	24¢	$29	1m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	40¢	$51	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	87¢	$201	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$311	2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	81¢	$200	2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$86	21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$50	24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$241	24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$25	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	76¢	$151	26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$314	27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	95¢	$299	28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$323	44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	61¢	$99	45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$26	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$25	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$25	46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$82	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	52¢	$53	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$243	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	96¢	$234	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$157	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	58¢	$92	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.08 · official $229.08 (match) · 38 history records