Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2e48…e8bc crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,628per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$16
other 1% +$65
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 10 +0.9% -8.7% 90% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage223d
Avg bet$1,628
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $64 +$64 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 09 $57 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Feb 24 $110 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 26 $17,428 −$17 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 19 $11 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $14 87d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 87d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $29 103d
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $58 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $55 116d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $58 117d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? SELL No 100¢ $111 118d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? BUY No 99¢ $110 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $17,411 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17,428 147d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.45 · official $64.45 (match) · 22 history records