Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2e4c…6aa6 crypto 1543 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$573 (-1%) realized −$573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%1485W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$1,247
14 days−$1,060
30 days−$657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$495
other 10% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -13.6% -21.8% 85% 0% -22.9%
≤30d 552 -1.5% -10.9% 96% 2% -11.1%
≤90d 1541 -1.5% -10.9% 96% 2% -10.4%
all 1541 -1.5% -10.9% 96% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 2% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 1% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$42 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1485 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1541 / 1543
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Up 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$2 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$4 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 21h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.78 · official $5.92 (match) · 3500 history records