Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e4d…33b0 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$87 (+5%) realized +$97 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$341
7 days−$180
14 days−$180
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$110
other 10% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.5% -22.6% 28% 28% -31.9%
≤30d 20 -3.3% -12.5% 35% 35% -19.1%
≤90d 20 -3.3% -12.5% 35% 35% -19.1%
all 23 -5.0% -14.1% 35% 35% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 35% -15.5%
10% -22.3% 35% -23.5%
15% -29.8% 35% -30.9%
20% -36.7% 35% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$51 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage125d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 72¢ $117 $152 +$35 (+29%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 32¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$48 -47%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$28 +549%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$4 -41%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$39 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$64 +126%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$34 -67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$24 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$72 +71%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $41 +$51 +126%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $60 +$41 +68%
Will the USA Stars team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Feb 16 $322 +$331 +103%
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Feb 16 $279 −$168 -60%
Will Keshad Johnson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest? Feb 15 $198 −$183 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $119 58m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $54 58m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $5 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $3 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $101 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $152 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 16¢ $6 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $3 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $115 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $17 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $56 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $54 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $41 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $174 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 3d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 99¢ $92 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $41 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.93 · official $206.93 (match) · 59 history records