Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2e53…4ff4 sports 7 markets active 2d ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$6 (+70%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$6
other 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +63.8% +48.2% 100% 67% +59.7%
≤30d 3 +63.8% +48.2% 100% 67% +59.7%
≤90d 7 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 86% +51.1%
all 7 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 86% +51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.3% 86% +51.1%
10% +30.5% 86% +36.6%
15% +17.9% 71% +23.4%
20% +6.3% 71% +11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage50d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$2 +118%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs May 10 $1 +$1 +59%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 08 $1 +$1 +73%
Valorant: All Gamers vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 04 $1 +$1 +67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Play May 03 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $4 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $2 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $2 37d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $1 38d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $1 42d
Valorant: All Gamers vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $2 43d
Valorant: All Gamers vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $1 44d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Play BUY EDward Gaming 79¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records