Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2e55…760d crypto 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$590 (+8%) realized +$594 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%75W / 333L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$200
14 days−$46
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$586
world 2% −$27
economics 2% −$81
other 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +50.5% +36.1% 21% 21% -42.6%
≤30d 52 +12.9% +2.2% 17% 17% -24.8%
≤90d 213 -32.7% -39.1% 14% 13% -40.5%
all 408 +5.4% -4.6% 18% 18% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 18% -2.9%
10% -13.7% 16% -12.2%
15% -22.1% 15% -20.7%
20% -29.7% 13% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$12 · ×5.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$594
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses75 / 333
Open positions1
Markets (closed)408 / 409
History coverage170d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $23 −$1 -6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $45 −$39 -86%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $10 −$6 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $131 +$15 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $48 −$32 -67%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$16 +190%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $79 −$76 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$19 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$3 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $62 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $49 −$48 -98%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$10 -65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $57 +$37 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$7 -83%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $21 +$223 +1078%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 31 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? May 31 $18 −$17 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? May 31 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? May 31 $15 −$15 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? May 31 $35 −$34 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 2? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? May 29 $17 +$16 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $10 +$11 +111%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $41 −$3 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? May 28 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 28? May 28 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 2186 history records