Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2E 0x2e56…114d other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$321 (+0%) realized +$319 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$1,371per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$796
politics 35% −$76
sports 8% −$409
world 4% −$7
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$6
tech 1% −$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -6.6% -15.5% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 79 -4.0% -13.2% 6% 1% -9.8%
all 134 +0.4% -9.2% 22% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 15% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 14% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 9% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,894) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$12 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$740
Realized+$319
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,371
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $387 $389 +$3 (+1%)
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $351 $350 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $354 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,446 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,250 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,096 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,118 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,911 −$5 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,998 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $392 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $666 +$2 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,659 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,894 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $3,000 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,106 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $56 +$50 +90%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $670 −$1 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,616 −$3 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,493 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $5,293 −$7 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $359 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $1,364 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,485 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $1,444 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,262 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,339 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $4,878 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $351 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $353 18h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $354 20h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $383 45h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $383 47h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $481 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $482 3d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $342 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $342 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $544 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $545 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $412 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $413 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $566 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $567 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $767 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $768 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 11d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 99¢ $387 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,474 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,476 14d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,341 14d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,343 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,247 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,249 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,269 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,271 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $739.84 · official $739.84 (match) · 471 history records