Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2E 0x2e59…123e other 35 markets active 2d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$99 (+17%) realized +$104 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$90
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$89
politics 11% +$5
sports 10% +$6
world 2% −$5
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +9.3% -1.1% 33% 33% +16.3%
≤30d 13 +9.1% -1.3% 38% 38% +12.7%
≤90d 13 +9.1% -1.3% 38% 38% +12.7%
all 13 +9.1% -1.3% 38% 38% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 38% +12.7%
10% -10.7% 23% +1.9%
15% -19.4% 23% -7.9%
20% -27.3% 15% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$2 · ×14.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.01 per $1 lost it wins $9.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)13 / 35
History coverage9d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Deel IPO before 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will UNI reach $11.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Yes 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 17 $1 $0 -19%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $171 −$4 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $23 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $82 +$85 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +41%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $46 +$9 +19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $5 +$6 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 38h
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen SELL Yes 24¢ $1 38h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 56¢ $78 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 31¢ $82 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $167 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $171 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $167 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $37 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 11¢ $1 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 35¢ $2 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.09 · official $10.18 (match) · 120 history records