Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e59…953b crypto 847 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,043 (-9%) realized −$5,043 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%764W / 83L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,663
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +233.6% +201.8% 100% 67% +4.8%
≤30d 9 +233.6% +201.8% 100% 67% +4.8%
≤90d 847 +5.9% -4.2% 90% 13% -14.0%
all 847 +5.9% -4.2% 90% 13% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 13% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 4% -22.3%
15% -21.7% 1% -29.8%
20% -29.4% 1% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$74 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$5,043
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses764 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)847 / 847
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 847 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $148 +$23 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 24 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $30 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 24 $169 −$85 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 24 $266 −$58 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 24 $117 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 24 $119 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 24 $99 −$46 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $109 +$30 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 24 $7 −$5 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 24 $20 −$8 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 24 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 24 $30 −$22 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.55 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records