trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $44 | $44 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | Dec 27 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Dec 11 | $4 | +$2 | +43% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Dec 11 | $2 | +$6 | +335% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 26 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 25 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 24 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? | Oct 23 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Oct 23 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Oct 23 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 05 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 03 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jul 03 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 24 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 02 | $1 | −$1 | -43% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? | Apr 18 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? | Apr 17 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | Mar 29 | $2 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? | Mar 24 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Mar 23 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 28 | +11.6% | +0.9% | 39% | 7% | -6.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.9% | 7% | -6.6% |
| 10% | -8.7% | 7% | -15.6% |
| 15% | -17.5% | 7% | -23.7% |
| 20% | -25.6% | 4% | -31.2% |