Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2e5a…0122
crypto · 532 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$5,857 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,726 · open +$804
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,437
Realized−$11,726
Unrealized+$804
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses148 / 377
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2,736
Open positions7
Markets (closed)525 / 532
History coverage153d
Avg bet$659
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 7 History 525 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,876
7 days+$2,045
14 days+$2,249
30 days−$14,804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 49¢ 58¢ $3,050 $3,611 +$561 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $1,500 $1,623 +$123 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,000 $1,080 +$80 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $999 $892 −$107 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $650 $860 +$210 (+32%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $834 $775 −$60 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1,250 $0 −$1,250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $182 $0 −$182 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $275 $0 −$275 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $550 $0 −$550 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $477 $0 −$477 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $850 $0 −$850 (-100%)
Will FC Porto vs. CD Tondela end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $422 $0 −$422 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $243 $0 −$243 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $310 $0 −$310 (-100%)
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $644 +$1,111 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $410 −$400 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,227 +$1,839 +150%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,990 −$1,206 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $210 −$200 -95%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $6,000 −$665 -11%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $257 +$4,691 +1825%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $508 −$26 -5%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $466 −$456 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $257 −$19 -7%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $716 +$1,607 +224%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 12 $4,000 −$1,052 -26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $70 −$69 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1,085 +$329 +30%
Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? Jun 09 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $239 −$239 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $519 −$489 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $423 −$200 -47%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $510 +$753 +148%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $870 −$850 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $611 −$416 -68%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $205 +$100 +49%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $708 +$439 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $561 +$1,009 +180%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $472 +$939 +199%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $426 −$96 -23%
Will Luxembourg vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 03 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Madagascar end in a draw? Jun 02 $3,083 −$3,000 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $871 −$850 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $315 +$402 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 01 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 01 $199 −$199 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $507 +$147 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 01 $337 −$15 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 01 $445 −$225 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 01 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 01 $233 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $131 −$25 -19%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $511 +$1,196 +234%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $257 −$250 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10,146 +$1,280 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $256 +$402 +157%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,692 −$2,054 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 29 $105 −$100 -96%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 28 $306 +$138 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 28% +$6,506
world 27% +$1,596
other 23% +$2,944
crypto 21% −$21,924
politics 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $550 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $1,000 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 12h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $3,066 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $240 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $256 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,029 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $256 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $2,705 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $1,500 15h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,949 15h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $482 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $1,842 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +45.3% +31.5% 27% 27% -0.7%
≤30d 191 -28.5% -35.3% 23% 23% -20.5%
≤90d 439 -15.2% -23.3% 27% 26% -10.7%
all 525 -17.6% -25.5% 28% 27% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 27% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 25% -20.4%
15% -39.1% 23% -28.1%
20% -45.1% 20% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,437.48 · official $9,437.48 (match) · 1728 history records