Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2e5a…8662
crypto · 65 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
+$59 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$60 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage42d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 3 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$18
14 days+$63
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-21? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $36 +$48 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$28 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% +$59
weather 23% +$4
other 4% +$1
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 20m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 22m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -17.1% -25.0% 37% 37% -15.2%
≤30d 59 +10.1% -0.4% 39% 39% +5.3%
≤90d 62 +8.5% -1.8% 40% 39% +3.8%
all 62 +8.5% -1.8% 40% 39% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 39% +3.8%
10% -11.2% 37% -6.1%
15% -19.8% 37% -15.2%
20% -27.7% 35% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.52 · official $16.64 (match) · 126 history records