Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e61…19bd world 340 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,719 (-2%) realized −$8,307 · open −$412
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%136W / 171L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,143per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$633est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$25,692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$283
7 days−$36,127
14 days−$31,494
30 days−$24,582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$26,086
sports 16% +$23,546
other 12% −$758
politics 2% −$1,722
finance 0% +$89
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -16.2% -24.2% 34% 28% -44.8%
≤30d 106 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 31% -19.1%
≤90d 287 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 36% -11.0%
all 307 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 36% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 36% -10.7%
10% -17.8% 30% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 25% -27.0%
20% -33.1% 21% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$779) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$468 vs −$399 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$25,692
Realized−$8,307
Unrealized−$412
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses136 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$633
Open positions34
Markets (closed)307 / 340
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$1,143
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $4,688 $5,031 +$343 (+7%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 90¢ $4,222 $4,877 +$655 (+16%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 88¢ $1,700 $2,109 +$409 (+24%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 46¢ 50¢ $1,570 $1,699 +$129 (+8%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 58¢ $1,153 $1,311 +$158 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 60¢ $1,169 $1,140 −$28 (-2%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 56¢ 89¢ $672 $1,074 +$402 (+60%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 37¢ 100¢ $370 $1,000 +$630 (+170%)
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 99¢ $700 $881 +$181 (+26%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $790 $790 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 22¢ 46¢ $301 $626 +$325 (+108%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 47¢ 75¢ $361 $584 +$223 (+62%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $895 $575 −$319 (-36%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 94¢ $372 $561 +$189 (+51%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $500 $550 +$50 (+10%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $747 $457 −$290 (-39%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 20¢ $538 $298 −$239 (-45%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $238 $282 +$43 (+18%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $460 $263 −$197 (-43%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $257 $240 −$17 (-7%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $238 $200 −$38 (-16%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $240 $170 −$70 (-29%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $220 $165 −$55 (-25%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $133 $148 +$15 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $553 −$550 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,529 −$1,507 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $357 −$350 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $530 +$470 +89%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $367 +$746 +203%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $528 −$438 -83%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $245 +$255 +104%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $305 +$195 +64%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $600 +$400 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $347 +$553 +159%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,154 +$1,353 +63%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,434 +$1,183 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$100 +99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $10,416 −$849 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,651 −$1,651 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $371 −$233 -63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $688 −$686 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 14 $313 −$199 -64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $393 −$389 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,306 −$411 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 14 $54 −$39 -72%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 14 $1,671 −$441 -26%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $843 −$370 -44%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $933 −$201 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7,233 −$2,862 -40%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $4,267 −$2,700 -63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6,027 −$1,672 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $7,008 −$3,675 -52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $2,930 −$1,409 -48%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13,614 −$13,614 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $146 −$143 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $556 +$22 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $134 +$5 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3,742 +$15 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $320 +$680 +212%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $8,592 −$7,645 -89%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,330 +$577 +43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $779 −$47 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $1,426 −$87 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1,645 −$102 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,709 +$246 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $256 −$48 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $596 −$206 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $11 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $16 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $16 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $7 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $7 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $8 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $50 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $22 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $4 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $3 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $57 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $103 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $15 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $0 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $194 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $135 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,012 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $517 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 22¢ $219 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 22¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,692.03 · official $25,702.19 (match) · 3500 history records