Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e67…9903 world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate34%26W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1
other 21% +$4
politics 17% −$11
sports 9% +$2
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 61 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 3% -9.5%
all 77 +0.8% -8.8% 34% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 8% -9.9%
10% -17.5% 5% -18.5%
15% -25.5% 5% -26.4%
20% -32.8% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses26 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage532d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $106 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$1 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $73 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $32 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $42 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $21 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $104 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $12 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $67 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $111 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $72 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $18 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $18 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $36 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $15 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $37 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $37 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $25 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $33 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $34 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $22 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.00 (match) · 285 history records