Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e68…b271 sports 267 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$182 (-2%) realized −$195 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%109W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$486
14 days−$375
30 days−$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$428
other 8% +$124
crypto 5% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -39.3% -45.1% 28% 26% -32.4%
≤30d 259 -10.4% -19.0% 41% 39% -14.0%
≤90d 266 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 38% -14.2%
all 266 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 38% -14.2%
10% -26.7% 37% -22.4%
15% -33.8% 36% -29.9%
20% -40.3% 32% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses109 / 157
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage33d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 78¢ $40 $54 +$13 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Irvine: Theadora Rabman vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $7 −$6 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $96 −$44 -45%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $13 −$12 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Vekic vs Raducanu Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Shevchenko vs. Sachko: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Krejcikova vs Linette Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -50%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $27 +$5 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $26 −$21 -82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 +$131 +195%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $58 +$39 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $49 +$26 +54%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 14 $39 +$56 +144%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 13 $18 +$48 +269%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $105 −$87 -83%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $176 +$15 +9%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $41 +$49 +119%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $41 +$52 +125%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $29 +$26 +89%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $79 +$48 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $96 +$99 +103%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Anisimova Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Zarate vs Ambrogi Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Fritz Jun 13 $30 +$44 +150%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $159 −$26 -16%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $104 +$77 +74%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $45 +$33 +73%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Bublik Jun 12 $36 +$23 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Irvine: Theadora Rabman vs Monika Ekstrand BUY Theadora Rabman 20¢ $6 1h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 16¢ $7 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $41 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 12¢ $9 8h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 25¢ $37 4d
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Giorgia Pedone 21¢ $13 4d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi 28¢ $49 4d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 32¢ $60 4d
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 57¢ $33 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 66¢ $32 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $26 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $27 4d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Kimberly Birrell 9¢ $5 5d
Set 1 Winner: Vekic vs Raducanu BUY Raducanu 51¢ $24 5d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 47¢ $26 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 54¢ $45 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 31¢ $10 5d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 38¢ $34 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $49 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $96 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $58 5d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 1¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $75 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.89 · official $53.89 (match) · 597 history records