Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2e6b…3e58 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,051 (-16%) realized −$908 · open −$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%19W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days−$213
14 days+$5
30 days−$805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$392
other 31% −$1,380
world 5% −$117
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -12.5% -20.9% 19% 19% -19.7%
≤30d 97 +6.6% -3.6% 18% 18% -28.5%
≤90d 113 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 17% -24.8%
all 113 +1.8% -7.9% 17% 17% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 17% -24.8%
10% -16.7% 17% -32.0%
15% -24.7% 17% -38.5%
20% -32.1% 17% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$49 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$908
Unrealized−$143
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses19 / 94
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions12
Markets (closed)113 / 125
History coverage77d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-27%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+21%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $12 −$23 (-65%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 4¢ $25 $4 −$20 (-82%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 4¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-85%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 1¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $26 +$99 +388%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 −$48 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $36 +$140 +390%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $56 −$55 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$90 +874%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $62 +$289 +470%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $77 +$113 +146%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$106 +414%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$87 +163%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $82 +$185 +226%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $82 +$116 +142%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $54 −$53 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 −$95 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +474%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $26 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $26 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $15 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $26 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 24h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $51 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $176 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $39 30h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 31h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 31h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 36h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 36h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $56 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $51 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.82 · official $236.90 · 180 history records